NDQ & / or QUAL & / or MOAT?

Hey Gav.

There’s no right answer here, but there’s quite a bit of double-up as you say.

First, keep in mind 10 year performance numbers are actually very short term figures that are often driven by just a few stocks or themes occurring. Any of those funds could underperform over the next 10 years, so I would be very hesitant about choosing funds based on the last 10 years of performance.

So these aren’t necessarily the ‘best’ funds due to recent performance (that’s a trap many people fall into), as performance between stocks/sectors/funds often tends to ‘mean revert’ meaning average out over time, with the broadest funds having the best chance of outperforming over time (which seems counterintuitive but it’s why beating the market is so hard).

In general, i would lean towards those which contain the most stocks, which would be NDQ and QUAL. And I would lean towards less holdings rather than more. Especially where those holdings are not really providing much uniqueness over the others.

If you had to pick just one fund to hold for 20 years, what would it be and why? This might help you figure out which one you think has the highest probability of performing well.

The simplest option is NDQ, the least diversified option is MOAT due to the smaller number of stocks. One option is to go with the index fund NDQ as a bigger portion and then have your other preferred fund as a smaller option, say ⁸⁰⁄₂₀ or ⁷⁰⁄₃₀.